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Season Predictions – AFC East
As we get ready to start the new season next week, I thought it would be fun to look at where each team stands at the start of the season, and kind of predict how things will shake out. Of course, trades, coaching, scheduling and luck will affect the final standings, but I will step out on a limb and try to see where things may finish in a division where there should be some very good competition, and probably at least two teams making the post-season.
1) Buffalo Bills
Why will the Bills win the division?
Bob has built a roster that is totally capable of winning a Super Bowl, where he sports a trio of studs on offense in QB Josh Allen, RB Derrick Henry and WR Stefon Diggs, all of whom are amongst the best in the league at their respective positions. The offense also has WR Courtland Sutton, and TE’s Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who can both support the run and pass game. On defense, the front 7 is a bit thin but has decent quality, led by veterans DT Javon Hargrave and ILB Bobby Wagner, while the secondary is very solid at both CB and safety. In short, Buffalo check marks all the boxes needed to win the big game.
Where could the Bills fall short?
While the Bills have built a very solid roster, their O-line is decent, but not great, and the depth on the D-line could come back to haunt them if a team manages to push a few long drives running the ball. Very minor quibble, but hey, have to say something to consider.
Verdict
Buffalo has every major piece you need to win the whole enchilada. In a cap league like this, you have to deal with some areas on your team that you would like to strengthen if possible, but this is a legit Super Bowl contender and the favorite to win the East and get a bye.
2) Indianapolis Colts
How could the Colts upset the apple cart and steal the division from the Bills?
Game management will be the key to how far Indy goes this season; Garoppolo is a very good QB when he is on the field; that said, his durability is definitely a factor. Jonathon Taylor is a great RB, so those games where he is available, he will be a solid weapon. WR Michael Pittman Jr. leads decent group of WR’s, and TE Kyle Pitts will make an impact when he is out there, and they will be bolstered by one of the better O-lines in the league. Defensively, they have talent from front to back, admittedly not to the level of the Bills but certainly deeper, with a solid pass rush for those guys when they are out there, along with a secondary that should be able to make stops and keep the team in the game.
Why the Colts could finish near the bottom of the East
While they have talent, that talent will be pressed to be on the field for much of the season; quite honestly, I can see games this season where Indy will be taking measurements from the water boy to see if he can fill out the jersey. The bottom 4 teams in this division all have strengths and flaws, and it will be imperative to build up their record early in order to handle those games where the backups start to take over.
Verdict
I have the Colts finishing second, though quite honestly, they could just as easily finish last, depending on how/when injuries start to pile up. The Colts have decent talent, and could sneak some games early and push for a playoff spot…depending on when those injuries occur.
3) New England Patriots
How can the Patriots make the playoffs?
One thing the New England has in their favor is that most of their players have better durability, and as we all know, the best ability is availability. Daniel Jones is solid at QB, and there are a decent number of carries to go with a solid #1 WR in Jakobi Myers, and a very good interior offensive line. On defense, they have good players scattered throughout the lineup, most of whom have decent durability and who are more than capable of keeping New England in most games.
How could New England finish near the bottom of their division?
New England is limited in their weapons on offense, and while their defense does boast some decent talent, it is not outstanding talent. Still, as the season goes on, the Patriots will probably be winning some of the games that the Colts won’t be, due to still having their core players in the lineup. The one position that could bite them will be on the D-line, where there isn’t much depth, and durability concerns could manifest themselves against run-first teams, and competing against teams with strong DE’s, as the Tackle position is as weak as the interior O-line is strong.
Verdict
As above, I have the Patriots as a team that could finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th in this division; I tend to think they will withstand the grind of a 17 game season fairly well, but the lack of weapons, the relatively weak OT’s and the D-line is going to make it hard some games. Daniel Jones probably won’t be having to clear his calendar to attend many award shows at the end of the season, but he is solid and durable and depending on how the ball bounces, could give this team enough wins to sniff the playoffs.
4) Miami Dolphins
How could the Dolphins surprise and finish in the top half of the division?
Actually, I think Miami could just as easily finish 2nd as 4th; Tua is a quality QB, and while he will miss some games this season, Todd wisely grabbed a solid backup in Baily Zappe. The Dolphins boast a 2-prong rushing attack, with Rhamondre Stevenson being one of the best pass-catchers in the backfield in the league. Christian Kirk and Jaylen Waddle make a fine top 2 WR’s, and there is just enough quality behind them at both WR and TE to give Miami options. On defense, Christian Wilkins is a stud, and one of the few D-lineman you will come across with 100 tackles, while there is a scattering of talent elsewhere, particularly at safety, which boasts Talanoa Hufanga.
How could the Dolphins finish near the bottom of the division?
Boy, these bottom 4 teams really made me think; while my eyes immediately went to a few of the studs they have, I started to then look and see where the roster is top-loaded; for example, after Wilkins and Akim McNeill on the D-line, there is a major drop-off along the line, and no real pass rush to speak of. Hufanga is one of the major young stars at safety, but the 2nd starter there will be average at best, and the position as a whole will have to deal with durability issues. The same issues exist on the O-line as well, so it may be rough-sledding when it comes to teams built to exploit those holes.
Verdict
Again, I went back and forth on this ranking, and I may totally miss the bus here; I honestly started writing his up with the Dolphins finishing 2nd, but I just kept having my doubts, and pushed them down. One factor, of course, is coaching, and Todd is as good as they come of getting the most out of the squad he has, so if a gypsy told me Miami makes the playoffs, I couldn’t tell her she was wrong…I just don’t see it at this point.
5) Tennessee Titans
How could Tennessee finish near the top of the division?
Aaron Jones is a solid #1 RB, and have 3 decent WR’s led by A.J. Brown, along with Hunter Henry at TE. While nobody will be writing sonnets about the O-line, it is solid, though it does lack a bit with regards to durability. On defense, the front 7 have both talent and challenges, as the Titans are currently carrying 6 ILB’s, but only 3 OLB’s, none of which is all that impressive. DL Jeffrey Simmons is a legit stud, and provides a solid pass rush, while the secondary has a mixture of youth and vets, with solid safeties.
How could Tennessee finish in the basement?
Simply put, the Titans probably field the weakest QB’s in the division, there isn’t a lot of depth behind Jones at RB, and the holes on defense could make them vulnerable against the stronger teams. Run away from Simmons, and force the OLB’s to make plays could be the MO for many teams this season, and could make it tough sledding in certain games.
Verdict
The bottom 4 teams in this division all have the opportunity to steal a game or two and leapfrog the others and compete for a playoff spot. While each team has their strengths and weaknesses, I just kept thinking the way the roster is constructed might leave teams with a blueprint as to how to beat the Titans; they certainly have talent, but they will have to figure out how to generate a pass rush outside of Simmons, and contain the run off-tackle. Drue Tranquill and Lavonte David combined for 265 tackles playing ILB, and they will need to be at least that good in the PSAFL to give Tennessee a shot of making the playoffs.
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