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Season Predictions – AFC Central
I think every league has a division where the talent seems a bit more loaded, and even the lower-tiered teams are better than average. In the PSAFL this season, that division is the AFC Central, where all four teams have decent if not great talent, and where even the last place team may have been playoff worthy had they been in a different division. Competition breeds excellence, so there should be some excellent games this year in the battle to win the division, so with no further ado, here’s my take on how it will play out.
1) Cleveland Browns
Why will the Browns win the division?
I’m going to start with an old adage they say in boxing; if you want to become champion, you have to beat the champion. Cleveland represented the AFC in the Super Bowl last year, and this year’s team is better than last year’s. RB Nick Chubb had 300 carries and over 1500 yards on the ground, and is back up by Kareem Hunt, a workhorse in his own right. One of the league’s premier receivers Ja’Marr Chase sits across from Jerry Jeudy, and they have stud TE George Kittle carving up the slot. Both sides of the line are sick, boasting possibly the best O-line and D-line, with 40 sacks by the starting D-line alone. They have a shutdown corner in James Bradberry, and are 3 deep at CB and solid at safety as well. In short, there is really no weakness in their starting lineup to speak of (save 1 position), which will make it hard to either score against them or stop them from scoring.
Where could the Browns fall short?
The Browns are kind of a science experiment of sorts; they have X-Men throughout their starting lineup but also have 17 players – nearly a third of their roster – making 500k or less, with 15 of them being 350k minimum players. Shawn will need the managerial skills of Casey Stengel, with the goal being to have these guys ready for a post-season run. Now, do I think he wants to win the division and get a bye…absolutely. But make no mistake, I am sure he will be more than happy to take a loss during the season in order to have his guys healthy come playoff time. Also…in order to have all this talent on his roster, he had to take a bit of a chance and go with his QB’s of last season. Jacoby Brissett and Taylor Heineke are…OK…but they will be able to relate to Trent Dilfer when it comes time to size their rings, IF that time comes. All that said…if all his guys are healthy…Shawn and the Browns will be extremely tough to beat.
Verdict
Cleveland doesn’t just have a loaded roster, they also have a boatload of draft capital next year and Shawn is very shrewd when it comes to trading and drafting. The only real reason he may not end up with the #1 seed is that he sits in a tough division, and the Bills are nearly as good. That said, anything less than winning the Super Bowl will leave the Browns with a sour taste in their mouths…they are that good.
2) Baltimore Ravens
How could the Ravens upset the apple cart and steal the division from the Browns?
While both teams are pushing the salary cap envelope, there are significant differences between the Browns and the Ravens. Baltimore has the better starting QB, with Geno Smith finishing in the top 5 last year, after seasons of languishing on various benches. The rushing attack is not as focused on one guy as Cleveland is, but the 3-headed committee boasted by Baltimore has ample carries at a decent clip, while Hollywood Brown and TE Mark Andrews provide solid targets, all behind a better than average O-line (though not as stellar as the one in Cleveland). The pass rush along the D-line is on par with that of the Browns, though more of it comes from the interior with the likes of DT Quinnen Williams. The true strength of the Ravens is in their secondary, where they run 3 deep at CB and 2 deep at safety, with backups at both positions that can provide solid dime and quarter coverage. Not near as many 350k guys on Baltimore, though that has its own perils.
Why the Ravens could finish further down the division?
Boy, this team could really use a better #2 WR; while the Ravens will certainly be a run-oriented team, especially since acquiring HB Patrick Ricard, it would be naïve to think there won’t be games when Baltimore will have to come from behind, and that lack of a 3rd solid weapon could end up being their Achilles heel. The pressure will really be on the defense to prevent that from happening as much as possible. Also, more salary for the Ravens is riding the pine...how important will that depth be, and will it detract with regards to matchups during games.
Verdict
In a division like the Central, it will be tough for any team to sweep through the division, and while Baltimore could certainly win the Central and get a bye, they could also miss the playoffs if they don’t at least hold their own against their division rivals. I am really looking to see how this plays out; it should be fun, regardless.
3) Cincinnati Bengals
How can the Bengals make the playoffs?
For starters, the best QB in the division resides at the home of Skyline Chili, with Joe Burrow leading the offense. RB Miles Sanders, with his 4.9 YPC, works alongside Playoff Lenny, and his 73 catches, while there are 3 legit WR’s getting open as Burrow has a better line in the PSAFL than he ever has had in the NFL. On defense, the Bengals only pale in comparison with the defenses of the aforementioned teams in the division, though they are both solid and deep from front to back, bringing a healthy pass rush in front of a somewhat suspect secondary, which will have issues with durability as the season goes along.
How could Cincinnati finish near the bottom of their division?
The top CB’s will have their issues staying on the field; depending on when the injuries strike, it could cost Cincy important games at the wrong times. If the Bengals were in any other division, these issues would be easier to sidestep, but they do at least have a decent pass rush that will aid their backups when they need to step up.
Verdict
Pierce is an excellent coach, so without a doubt he is going to maximize what this squad does, but in many ways he won’t have the horses to pull the wagon during the season. A lot is going to depend on timing, and that said, even when everyone is healthy, the starting lineups don’t quite match up. Still, this is Action PC, where almost anything is possible, and there is enough talent on this roster to get Pierce to the post-season, where anything is possible.
4) Pittsburgh Steelers
How could the Steelers make the playoffs and push to be in the top 3?
Pittsburgh actually has some nice skill position guys, with a 3 headed rushing attack that get a solid YPC, along with a solid top 3 WR’s, with a 4th that could be a starter in Baltimore, all behind a decent O-line that won’t wow anyone, but can play solid. The front 7 on defense boasts studs in Cam Heyward, Micah Parsons and S Minkah Fitzpatrick anchors the secondary, while the rest of the defense is solid, making up in durability in those areas where depth is a bit thin.
How could the Steelers finish last, despite their talent?
A couple of things hold the Steelers back; one, they have by far the weakest QB’s in the division; with the solid DB’s playing in this division, it could be tough to get the ball into the hands of those skill guys. Secondly, while there is talent, there are also spots on the defense where the Steelers are…OK. And this might be the wrong division to be OK.
Verdict
In typing this up, I was left wondering how Pittsburgh ended up in the Central and Tennessee ended up in the East; if they were switched, I probably could have made a case for how the Steelers would be picked to finish 2nd in the division, with an excellent shot at the playoffs. Don’t get me wrong; they have their issues, especially at QB, but this is a solid team that will probably fall short when it comes to making a playoff run.
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