|
Season Predictions – AFC West
The AFC West is an interesting division, in that it contains teams that have some of the best talent in the league, as well as legitimate rebuilds. That said, there are some legitimate playoff contenders, and so with that, let’s dive a bit deeper into how I see the season playing out.
1) Kansas City Chiefs
Why will the Chiefs win the division?
Kansas City is home to many of top players in the PSAFL, starting namely to the top rated QB in the league, Patrick Mahomes. Any game where Mahomes is pitching the ball gives the team a chance to win, especially since two of his targets are Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, both of who are among the tops at their respective positions. While there is not a bell-cow back, there are several RB’s who will take their turns toting the rock and showing good YPC on their cards, as well as decent backup targets at both WR and TE. The front 7 on defense is anchored by possibly the best D-lineman at the moment in Chris Jones, who can play anywhere on the line as needed, while the starting 4 in the secondary are above average, and will allow the Chiefs to play M2M or zone as they deem necessary. In short, there is a lot to like when looking at this squad
Where could the Chiefs fall short?
It’s hard to have the studs that Kansas City has without having holes, and the Chiefs definitely have holes. Mahomes has to love that his blindside is protected by maybe the best LT in the game in Lane Johnson, but other than retread C Jake Brendal, who excelled at his first year as a starter, the rest of O-line is really below average. Much of the same can be said on defense as well, where the D-line is ok outside of Jones, but can be exploited. The back 7 will have to do the heavy lifting on the defense, and hope that Jones terrorizes teams enough to get the 3 and outs when needed in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
Verdict
Kansas City is a good team, but may be more in line talent-wise with Cincinnati than the top teams in the AFC. That said, any team with Mahomes that makes the playoffs is a dangerous team, and if a trade or two prior to the deadline occurs, then we may need to revisit the post-season predictions a bit. Doug is more than a capable coach, and will work around those areas that need attention, but even if the roster stands pat, Kansas City will be considered a favorite in the division.
2) Los Angeles Chargers
How could the Chargers upset the apple cart and steal the division from the Chiefs?
For starters, Eric must be grinning like a pig in mud that his quarterback isn’t named Matt Ryan; Eric had his consecutive streak of .500 or better seasons broken by poor QB play, but Justin Herbert is capable of having games that match Mahomes throw for throw. At RB, there is the duel threat of Joe Mixon as well as the best receiving RB in football in Austin Ekeler, who give Herbert a great target to dump the ball off in pressure. The Chargers click other boxes as well, throwing out 3 legit targets at WR and a decent TE in Noah Fant, all while behind an O-line that lacks the star-power of Lane Johnson, but is solid, having more depth than KC. While the D-line doesn’t have the benefit of a stud like Chris Jones, they are solid and deep along the front 7, and while the starting CB’s are maybe a notch below what the Chiefs have, they are strong at safety. In short, Eric has a team that doesn’t really have many holes, and should be solid.
Why the Chargers could finish further down the division?
The big talent for the Chargers shows up on offense; in short, they should be able to score ample points, but on defense, they just simply aren’t as strong as other teams, which could cause them to be in more shootouts. Herbert has an excellent completion percentage, but doesn’t have a great Y/A, and so I imagine Eric will have to be patient and be methodical. There are some durability concerns with his top WR targets, so Eric will need to be mindful of his usage throughout the season. First world problems, but problems nonetheless.
Verdict
This division is really a two team race; it’s easy to get blinded by the star-power in KC, but it would not be a shocker to see the Bolts sneak past them at the end. The only real reason for going Chiefs first is Mahomes, but Herbert is a worthy adversary and could take it to the final weeks of the season
3) Houston Texans
How can the Texans make the division interesting?
Let me say from the start that the Texans are better now than last season; that said, I think the rebuild is still ongoing. I think either Mayfield or Pickett (or both) will take steps up this season, but do present a dual threat that won’t scare the masses, but should the ball in play. There are plenty of decent quality carries at RB, and 3 decent receiving targets, all behind a good O-line. On defense, Matt Judon brings his 16 sacks and the starting safeties are above average, with plenty of warm bodies to fill in depth-wise.
How could Houston finish near the bottom of their division?
Neither QB on the roster can put the team on their back and carry them through the season, or really through many games. While I can see the offense putting up points throughout the season, it may lag behind the first two teams listed above. Meanwhile, on defense, the word of the day is “six”…which in this game means average. While the defense does have a few guys that show a bit of “wow”, the rest can be exploited in games, which will not bode well in the quest for the playoffs
Verdict
I’ve coached against Rudy for years, and without a doubt he knows how to rebuild a team and how to coach it. This team will most likely win the games it should, maybe sneak a win or two they shouldn’t, and lose against the top teams they play and finish somewhere in the 7-9 wins range…good enough to be respectable, but a season or two away from competing for the division.
4) Las Vegas Raiders
How could the Raiders make the playoffs and push to be in the top 3?
Las Vegas boasts one of the top RB’s in the league, and will be led by a solid O-line; without giving anything away, I think Butch will be a run-first coach with this team. Off of that, they will throw the ball a bit, though their main receiving targets are all going to deal with durability issues. On defense, the front 7 is actually pretty decent, with some above average talent, backed by an average secondary.
How could the Raiders finish last?
For starters, the QB situation is even weaker than the Texans, with next year’s presumed starter watching from the sideline (Desmond Ridder). Once the starting WR’s and TE Darren Waller start missing games, Josh Jacobs WILL be the offense, and even behind a really good O-line, that just won’t cut it. Also, while the defense will be able to generate a pass rush, the secondary will be able to be exploited, especially against better teams.
Verdict
Again, another good coach in Butch, who is actively working on shoring up those areas where he falls short. I have no doubt that by this time next year, we won’t be talking about who the starting QB/WR’s are; this year though, could have some moments that will have Butch just looking to run down the clock.
5) Jacksonville Jaguars
How could Jacksonville finish out of last place?
The Jags do have the 3rd best QB in the division in Ryan Tannehill, and do possess one of the better young WR’s in Drake London, with 3 other guys who won’t embarrass anyone, so it is easy to see the Jags outscoring the Raiders during the course of the season. The back 7 on defense has the look of mediocrity, which isn’t all bad when you are trying to stay out of the proverbial basement.
How could Jacksonville finish in the basement?
Tannehill may be the 3rd best QB in the division, but that is hardly something that will go on his bust in Canton; also, he will miss some significant time this season, and Skyler Thompson hardly set the world on fire when he played last year. There is a lack of quality carries in the backfield, and the D-line is just not all that great, while the back 7 won’t cause OC’s to lose sleep.
Verdict
One of the things you can say about this division is that all the current coaches know what they are doing, and Jason is doing all he can to acquire draft capital for next season. I personally see the Raiders eeking 4th place away from the Jags, and I see Jason already looking at early season projections as to how this draft class will play off. There is a good chance Desmond Ridder’s competition at QB is waiting to be drafted, along with the pieces of the future D-line, but this year will be a bumpy ride.
|