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Season Predictions – NFC Central
While the NFC Central doesn’t appear to have the depth that their AFC counterparts have, there does appear to be the promise of solid competition for the top spot, as well as for a playoff spot. With that said, here is a look into my hazy crystal ball as to how this division may end up.
1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why will the Bucs win the division?
While I’m sure this is probably a season sooner than Calvin was projecting his team competing, they still have pieces in place that could allow them to win this division. QB Derek Carr hardly brings visions of Montana, but he is probably the 2nd best QB in the division. At RB, there are plenty of quality carries; yeah, probably would like better than the 3.8 YPC that Najee Harris provides, but then again, he will be running behind a better than average O-line, and will have the benefit of playing alongside Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Evan Engram. On defense, the front 7 is not exceptional, but they do have a very good secondary; in short, they will need to score enough to get teams to abandon the run and be forced to throw the ball, where they can limit comebacks.
Where could the Bucs fall short?
You would hope Derek Carr will have a better season in New Orleans than he had in Las Vegas; that said, we all saw what Calvin could do with a middling QB in the PAFL this past season. Teams that manage to run the ball a lot will find it very inviting to do so against the mediocre Tampa front 7; it won’t take long to get to the backups along the D-line, which could snowball into a rough day, especially if Carr if off his game. The best way to overcome going against a superior secondary is to not have to pass the ball, and that might be recipe against this team.
Verdict
This might be the weakest division in the PSAFL, so the division is ripe for the Bucs to take; that said, this may be more a war of attrition than it is of dominance. Calvin might rather wait a year to make a post-season run, but he might have too much talent at the right spots to avoid over-achieving.
2) New Orleans Saints
How could the Saints make the race in the Central interesting?
Tim has a lot of things working in his favor; for one, he has the best QB in the division by a fairly wide margin, with Trevor Lawrence looking to be around for quite some time. The rushing attack may be a bit long in tooth, but Kamara and Murray both had decent YPC’s and also caught the ball enough out of the backfield to stick around on 3rd down, and run behind an O-line that is fairly good, particularly at tackle. The defensive front 7 is very solid and should be able to get to the QB a fair amount, while the secondary won’t wow anyone but is solid enough to keep the team in most games.
Why the Saints probably won’t win the division?
There are probably 2 reasons why New Orleans won’t get past Tampa; for one, their weapons in the passing game are at best average, and when they face Tampa, I would expect Calvin to shut them down and make Tampa one-dimensional. Secondly, the secondary of the Saints won’t scare many teams; if a talented passing team faces this secondary, it could make it tough for New Orleans to come from behind.
Verdict
All the teams in this division have holes that can be exploited; the question is – how big are the holes, and how can teams exploit them. I just don’t see on the surface how New Orleans matches up very well against Tampa; that said, if they can split the season series, then New Orleans stands a shot at competing for the division.
3) Carolina Panthers
How can the Panthers make the division interesting?
Mac Jones certain ranks with the other QB’s not named Lawrence in the division; in the long run, Jerry can only celebrate that Matt Patricia is doing anything other than being the OC for Jones going forward. There are some impressive pieces on offense, where Christian McCaffrey offers a dual threat at RB, and there is a fair amount of depth catching the ball to allow the offense to score a fair amount, all behind an O-line that doesn’t wow, but is solid. The D-line is led by Brian Burns, who is a force up front, and the front 7 as a whole should be able to make enough stops to win their fair share of games, while the secondary is respectable and capable.
How could Carolina fall short?
I look at Carolina being neck-and-neck with New Orleans this season, but where I see they may fall short is 1) they look to have durability issues at CB, which is always an issue but particularly against Tampa and 2) Mac Jones just doesn’t match up well against the likes of Trevor Lawrence, though he does have better weapons at his disposal.
Verdict
Really went back and forth on this one; originally, I had Carolina 2nd and New Orleans 3rd, and it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if it ended up that way. I see all these teams beating each other up in the division, with whoever has the best division record having the best record in the division (if that makes sense).
4) Chicago Bears
How could the Bears make the playoffs and push to be in the top 3?
You could honestly make a case for any of the bottom 3 teams finishing 2nd in this division; Justin Fields is the resident unicorn, where you have essentially a RB who averages 7.1 YPC who can also throw the ball, two RB’s who are solid in their own right, along with 4 targets who won’t take your breath away, but can move the chains. The front 7 is respectable, particularly at LB, and should be able to pressure the QB, while having a shutdown CB in Tariq Woolen and a quality safety tandem that can both cover and tackle.
How could the Bears finish last in the division?
You would love to have Fields playing alongside a QB that has limited attempts but a better QBR; in short, you would probably prefer Purdy over Flacco, but if you grab Purdy you don’t have Woolen, so I get it. None of the weapons at WR/TE have over 50 catches, and to be honest…the O-line is fairly OK but has a major hole at one of the tackles spots. A lot of resources were spent to obtain Hainsey, who most likely won’t play center next year; the depth at D-line is concerning, as well, which puts more pressure for the Bears to control the ball and score whenever they can.
Verdict
If you tell me that you think the Bears finish 2nd in the division, I wouldn’t throw a lot of stink your way; that said, I am a big believer in completion percentage, and when Fields is your team leader at 60.4%, that gives me cause to pause. I think there will be games when the game plan comes together and Chicago rushes the ball 40 times for 250 yards and have a 20 minute TOP advantage. Question is…how often will that happen? I just see the Bears being a bit short, though if Fields takes a page from Jalen Hurts’ playbook, takes the next steps to becoming an NFL QB and completes at least 65% of his passes for over 3500 yards…then we’ll be looking at a totally different Bears team.
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