|
Season Predictions – NFC West
This division may not overly impress at first glance, but the first two league champions reside here, so road to a championship rests here as well. Here is how I see the NFC West shaking out over the course of the long 17 game season.
1) Los Angeles Rams
Why will the Rams win the division?
The defending PSAFL champions bring back most of their firepower from their improbable Super Bowl win last season, starting at QB in Jared Goff. I find it kinda crazy the talking heads on NFL Network keep looking for the Lions to replace him, while he finished just shy of a 100 QBR and protected the ball last year. It will be a RB-by-committee this season, while Cooper Kupp leads the WR corp, admittedly with quite a few games missing on his resume last year. While the O-line lacks star power, there is depth, while the starting LB’s may be among the best in the league. Jalen Ramsey is a legit shutdown CB, there is sufficient depth there to allow them to keep up with most teams’ passing attacks.
Where could the Rams fall short?
This team is simply not as deep or as strong as last season’s squad; to start off with, there are not enough carries among backs with >4.0 YPC, especially behind an O-line that is fairly ordinary. Kupp is a total stud, but missed quite a few games last year, and once you get past him, there is Robert Woods and ???. The back 7 is solid, but the D-line is lacking durability and depth; yes, Aaron Donald was still studly last year, but missed 6 games as his career winds down. Get past Donald and the D-line is very suspect.
Verdict
This isn’t your grandma’s Rams team, even from a year ago. You can expect to see excellent coaching, a top 10 QB and glimpses of the excellence that brought home the hardware last season, but Kenny will be hard pressed to repeat with is team as currently configured.
2) San Francisco 49ers
How could the 49ers make the race in the West race interesting?
San Francisco has the pieces to win this division; for starters, they have the best QB in the division in Jalen Hurts, with a QBR of 101.5 and rushing for 760 yards. He couples with Colt McCoy, who doesn’t blind you with his excellence, but can be used in those games to lessen the usage of Hurts enough to extend him through the season. Jeff Wilson is a bit underwhelming as the lead back, but that can be forgiven a bit since Hurts will absorb some of the load there, while San Fran can easily run a 2 TE set and give Hurts both targets and blocking in the run game. On defense, the 49ers boast the Defensive POY in Nick Bosa and his 20 sacks, as well as one of the premier ILB’s in Fred Warner. The secondary has the requisite shutdown CB in Darius Slay, and is solid elsewhere, particularly at safety.
Why the 49ers probably won’t win the division?
While San Francisco has quality OT’s, their interior O-line really isn’t all that good; in fact, it may be the worst in the PSAFL. Couple that with Melvin Gordon’s 3.5 YPC, and you can see a lot of drives stalling; yeah, Hurts will take up some of that load, but that really isn’t the advantage you were looking for by having him star on your offense. Also, get past Bosa and Warner in the front 7, and the rest of guys are…OK. They can be exploited, and teams with top rushing attacks might be able to take advantage, even though Warner is in every way a stud.
Verdict
As I inferred earlier, all the teams in this division have some flaws to their roster, so San Francisco is totally capable of overcoming theirs and winning their division. As someone who plays Kenny a fair amount though, I know he knows how to minimize his weaknesses; will Jamey be able to game plan to that same level? That, of course, is why we play the games.
3) Minnesota Vikings
How can the Vikings make the division interesting?
While all the teams in this division have some weaknesses, one thing these first 3 teams have in common is decent QB play; while Cousins is maybe a step off from the previous season, he is still solid, and boasts the ability to be there every game. RB is a position of strength, with solid YPC, though a few less carries than you might like to see, with maybe the best WR in football, along with a couple of other decent weapons who operate behind a decent O-line. The middle of the defense is solid, and CB Trent McDuffie is one of the young studs at corner that came into the league last year
How could Minnesota fall short?
The Vikings will probably score a good number of points, but there is always that lingering fear that Cousins could go…..Cousins…in any given game. He tends to be one of the more volatile QB’s out there, so managing him is like running a dog sled pulled by cats. Since he doesn’t give you a whole lot of carries like Hurts, you would like to see a few more carries on the roster for closing out those games already decided, and D-line Is short on durability and top-talent; likewise, McDuffie is a stud, but he missed a lot of games last year, so there will be times where stopping the run and pass could be challenging.
Verdict
There isn’t a ton that separates the top 3 teams in this division, so any of them can make a case for winning it; Law won the first PSAFL title, so he has more street cred than most to pull that off. That said, the holes he has will hold him back, but massaging more good games than bad from Cousins will be his mission throughout this season.
4) Detroit Lions
How could the Lions make the playoffs and push to be in the top 3?
I would first off ride the Red Rifle and name Andy Dalton to be the starter, and let Matthew Stafford run shotgun for those games that Dalton is off. While this will be another example of RB-by-committee, both of the top guys are decent receiving threats, which is nice considering the top receiver is actually their TE. This is all behind an O-line that is better than average, which is nice because there are statues that compete athletically with Dalton. On defense, as the theme seems to be in this division, there isn’t a lot of “wow” factor, but there is depth and is solid; in short, I don’t see the defense sending fear into opposing offenses, but then again, they should be able to make a few stops along the way.
How could the Lions finish last in the division?
You really would like to see more carries out of their RB’s (a consistent theme, I know), and there might not be a worse tandem of mobility at QB than Detroit possesses (54 total sacks between them, and a total of 63 rushing yards). Nobody will be frightened to play M2M against Detroit, as their top 3 receiving threats average a combined YPC of under 10 yards, though Slayton does offer something of a deep threat. While there are some nice players on defense, nobody there is over a 7, which means other teams can move the ball against them, which will lead to games where things could snowball rather quickly.
Verdict
I honestly think this is a case where the Lions will have games where they impress you and others where the depress you. Dalton tends to be streaky, and on any given day if he is on fire, I think the Lions could be a tough game regardless. That said, I just don’t see them being able to shut down a whole lot of teams; in short, they will have their challenges both in division, as well as out of it
5) Seattle Seahawks
How could Seattle finish out of last place?
There was a time earlier during the off-season when I was talking to Don about how he could maybe win the division; while that ship has sailed, and he has chosen to take the long game, there are still things to like about this team. He made the move for Lamar, and while that won’t provide immediate dividends, I think now that Lamar has a long-term deal, he will miraculously find himself on the field more, and closer to the form that made him MVP a few seasons ago. Despite missing 5 games, he still rushed for over 750 yards at close to 7 YPC; he will compete for carries with Travis Etienne, who is a dual threat in the backfield, and at WR, the tandem of Davonte Smith and DJ Metcalf should impress, all behind a young O-line that should only get better. On defense, the Seahawks can boast of a quality young secondary, with Patrick Surtain already one of the top corners in the game at only 22 yo.
How could Seattle finish in the basement?
The front 7 defense of the Seahawks can make you cringe at first; they are incredibly young, and incredibly inexperienced, and it will show this season. There won’t be a starter on the D-line older than 24, and even the grizzled veteran is only 26; likewise, only 1 ST wiz at LB is above the age of 25, so expect the Seahawks to take their lumps. At least they won’t get lost in the crowd, with those new neon green uniforms they sport this season.
Verdict
Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither will the Seahawks; another draft, solid improvement amongst the youngsters, and this team will probably compete faster than you might expect, especially in this division. There is little chance the Seahawks finish out of the basement this season, but things may start looking up as early as next season.
|